Deathbed of Keynesian Economics Will Be in U.K.

By Matthew Lynn

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. has produced notable economists over the years, but John Maynard Keynes, the guru of government intervention, was one of truly global significance.

So it may be fitting that the U.K. will also become the deathbed of Keynesian economics.

Britain has been following the mainstream prescriptions of his followers more than any developed nation. It has cut interest rates, pumped up government spending, printed money like crazy, and nationalized almost half the banking industry.

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Comment: This article makes a good point, Keynesianism is on its deathbed - much like global warming - but the much like that issue the troops will circle the wagon and toss out red herring after red herring to save the Orthodoxy.

Mark Faber: Social obligations will lead Western states to default

The United States’ top credit rating is at risk, with its triple 'A' status warned it may be downgraded if the economy grows at a slower pace than expected, says ratings agency Moody's.

“Maximum within 10 years time more than 35% of tax revenues will have to be used to pay the interest on the government debt and then you are in trouble – because then there will be not enough money out of the budget to pay for other stuff,” Faber warns. “I’m convinced the US government will go bankrupt, but not tomorrow. And before they go bankrupt, they’ll print money, and then you get high inflation rates, you have a depression and eventually they’ll go to war.”

The investment guru also says the cracks in the system are starting to spread, naming other countries that could follow suit. “Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain… I think, eventually, they will all default – because if one defaults, then the next would say why should we pay and will also default. The obligations of Western governments are far too high; they won’t be able to pay.” Faber suggests that governments raise the retirement age to 70 years old and cut on social spending, but he believes even that won't be enough.

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The Next Leg Of The Housing Crisis In Five Simple Charts

Everything that the government has done so far, with a few minor detours, has been almost exclusively focused on maintaining home prices high, by tweaking either the supply or the demand side of the housing equation. As the bulk of consumer net wealth is concentrated in the housing sector, and a wealthy and confident consumer, much more so than the banking system, is critical to the recovery of America's economy, the Administration will do everything in its power to achieve its goal of artificially manipulating the housing market, thereby not causing an incremental loss of wealth to those still stuck with overpriced houses, while the real intersection of actual supply and demand curves would indicate a materially lower equilibrium price. This is ironic, as proper price discovery is critical for a true recovery, since Americans realize all too well that buying a house at prevailing levels in advance of the second down-leg in housing is senseless, the continued pursuit of such flawed policies by the Fed and President Obama merely pulls the market ever further away from its equilibrium, thereby making the anticipated second dip so much more likely and not that far off in the distant future. Below are 5 simple charts the highlight just how precarious the housing situation in the U.S. is, and how likely the second, and probably much more fierce, leg down in the markets is going to be.

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Soaring Deficits Projected Under Obama's New Budget

President Obama sent Congress a $3.8 trillion budget Monday for fiscal year 2011, pushing a plan that includes new jobs-creation programs but is projected to add nearly $1.3 trillion in deficit spending on top of the current year's projected $1.6 trillion deficit.

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Secret Banking Cabal Emerges From AIG Shadows

(Bloomberg) -- The idea of secret banking cabals that control the country and global economy are a given among conspiracy theorists who stockpile ammo, bottled water and peanut butter. After this week’s congressional hearing into the bailout of American International Group Inc., you have to wonder if those folks are crazy after all.

Wednesday’s hearing described a secretive group deploying billions of dollars to favored banks, operating with little oversight by the public or elected officials.

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Comment: Actual Bloomberg headline!

One day after supposedly bashing the banks, the Obama-led Democrats re-nominate top banker

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confirmed for a second term Thursday by the U.S. Senate. The final confirmation vote was 70-30.

The vote, which occurred just three days before Bernanke's first term was scheduled to end, came after heavy lobbying by Democratic leaders and the Obama administration. President Obama, himself, made calls last weekend. And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., lobbied Republicans to make sure he had enough votes.

Despite the strong showing, Bernanke won his confirmation by one of the smallest margins of all time for a Fed chairman. Often the confirmation of a Fed chairman is so overwhelming and uncontroversial, it's done by a voice vote.

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Is The U.S. Economy Being Tanked By Mistake or By Intent?

The government wants Americans to believe the greatest economic collapse in history was the result of ineptness and mistakes yet still have confidence in their financial institutions.

Should American bankers be let off the hook because they self-declare, before an investigational panel, that the failure of their newly invented risk swaps and other highly leveraged investment schemes was simply due to "mistakes"? Not malfeasance – just every-day mistakes? Bankers just fell asleep at the helm at a critical juncture in American history. Is that what we are being led to believe?

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One in 7 U.S. mortgages foreclosing or delinquent

NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - A record one in seven U.S. mortgages were in foreclosure or at least one payment past due in the third quarter, according to fresh data signaling the recovery in the housing market will be tepid at best.

U.S. mortgage delinquency rates and the percentage of loans that entered the foreclosure process also jumped to records from July to September, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Thursday.

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Marc Faber: The Next Thing You Need To Worry About Is The PIIGS

The countries most likely to blow up this time around are the "PIIGS": Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain. One ore more of them, Faber says, will likely default in the next couple of years. And, that could result in the death of the Euro currency.

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Dollar Crisis Looms if US Doesn't Curb Debt: Experts

The United States must soon raise taxes or cut government spending to curb its debt, and failure to act will risk a crippling dollar crisis as investor confidence ebbs, a panel of experts said on Wednesday.

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Goldman E-Mail Lays Bare Trading Conflicts - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com

In an e-mail message to select clients, Thomas C. Mazarakis, the head of Goldman’s fundamental strategies group, acknowledged that his unit often provided investment ideas that the firm had already traded on. Sometimes Goldman has even taken the opposite approach, betting against particular instruments that the group has recommended.

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Arizona treasurer says checks will bounce amid budget crisis - Phoenix Arizona news, breaking news, local news, weather radar, traffic from ABC15 News | ABC15.com

Martin said unless the capitol buildings are sold before the end of the month, there will be no more money meaning, "If they continue to issue checks without having money from the sale of the buildings, I have to bounce them."

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What Is The True Unemployment Number?

Let's take at a look at some of the statistical manipulation needed to come up with a 10% headline unemployment number.

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Federal Reserve Seeks to Protect U.S. Bailout Secrets

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve asked a U.S. appeals court to block a ruling that for the first time would force the central bank to reveal secret identities of financial firms that might have collapsed without the largest government bailout in U.S. history.

The U.S. Court of Appeals in Manhattan will decide whether the Fed must release records of the unprecedented $2 trillion U.S. loan program launched after the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. In August, a federal judge ordered that the information be released, responding to a request by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

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Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show.

AIG said in a draft of a regulatory filing that the insurer paid banks, which included Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, 100 cents on the dollar for credit-default swaps they bought from the firm. The New York Fed crossed out the reference, according to the e-mails, and AIG excluded the language when the filing was made public on Dec. 24, 2008. The e-mails were obtained by Representative Darrell Issa, ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

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Is The U.S. Government Buying Stocks? | zero hedge

Is The U.S. Government Buying Stocks? | zero hedge

The Fed (or Treasury) could even go as far as directly intervening in the stock market via direct purchases of equities as a way to boost falling equity prices. Some of such policy actions seem extreme but they were in the playbook that Governor Bernanke described in his 2002 speech on how to avoid deflation.

Public Pensions Face $2 Trillion Deficit

Even in a world of massive deficits and rising national debt, not many problems come in packages that are in the trillions of dollars. The deficit facing U.S. public pension funds will grow to $2 trillion, according to an interview that the chairman of New Jersey's pension fund, Orin Kramer, gave to the FT. "Estimates of aggregate funding requirement of the US pension system have ranged between $400bn and $500 bn, but Mr Kramer's analysis concluded that public funds would need to find more than $2,000bn to meet future pension obligations."

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